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Dec 7, 2012
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hurricane sandy, though, still making waves. analysts expect the super storm to dent unemployment figures out later today. we'll review that report when we come back. >>> here are the headlines. u.s. job growth is expected to have slowed significantly in november as hurricane sandy battered the economy. japanese authorities have lifted all tsunami warnings after a 7.3 magnitude quake struck off the northeastern coast. and bundesbank has sharply lowered germany's growth outlook from 1.6 to a mere 0.4%. it's warned of an imminent recession as problems in europe periphery weigh. futures at the moment forecasts a soft start. down 15 at the moment on the dow, nasdaq currently called down 3.8, and s&p 500 around 1.5 points. european stocks are flat really. forgave points for the ftse, xetra dax is up though at it highest level since 2008. up nearly 28% this year. flat on the cac, ibex down two thirds. but hurricane sandy is expected to have put a pretty big accident in the november u.s. jobs report. it's out at 8:30 eastern. nonfarm p
hurricane sandy, though, still making waves. analysts expect the super storm to dent unemployment figures out later today. we'll review that report when we come back. >>> here are the headlines. u.s. job growth is expected to have slowed significantly in november as hurricane sandy battered the economy. japanese authorities have lifted all tsunami warnings after a 7.3 magnitude quake struck off the northeastern coast. and bundesbank has sharply lowered germany's growth outlook from 1.6...
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Dec 7, 2012
12/12
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no substantive sandy in the jobs numbers. the lack of sandy effect has us scratching our heads, what they said. i just got off the phone with the guy who's the head of doing the numbers, labor numbers at the bls. he walked me through the rather extensibilive process they did fine out if there was any sandy effect, including sampling of businesses in a flood tide areas. >> it was very meticulous. >> i'm pretty convinced they did a good job figuring out if there was an effect and there is no effect which brings us to the numbers which you could believe on face value as much as you can. they'll revise this again. they only come forward with 60% to 70% of the sample. unemployment rate falling 7.7% because largely a drop in the labor force. average hourly earnings up 0.2%. despite positive headlines, xwoeld man sax says we interpret this report as one only slightly better than expected overall given downward revisions and weaker labor force and it does not change our assessment of the underlying strength of the labor market. priva
no substantive sandy in the jobs numbers. the lack of sandy effect has us scratching our heads, what they said. i just got off the phone with the guy who's the head of doing the numbers, labor numbers at the bls. he walked me through the rather extensibilive process they did fine out if there was any sandy effect, including sampling of businesses in a flood tide areas. >> it was very meticulous. >> i'm pretty convinced they did a good job figuring out if there was an effect and...
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Dec 3, 2012
12/12
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how much of this demand rise are we going to see will be sandy rebound from sandy and actually real demand? >> we have low interest rates and old cars on the road. so a lot of the demand is real demand. but the other thing is that all the checks haven't been written for sandy. we've had about two weeks of checks coming from insurance companies. but there will be more probably next month of that than there is this month. so it will help. but it's the general market conditions and cars that are on average 11.1 years of age that are really driving car sales. in this low interest rate environment, this is the other big ticket item. >> how are people going to fund their purchases? you have an 11-year-old car, how are they funding the replacement of it? >> well, the availability of credit has improved dramatically over the last eight months or so. and we're even seeing people with bumps in their credit history, subprime borrowers, getting more acceptances of their car loans. and of course there are a lot of incentivized interest rates from the manufacturer's financing arms out there, as well. th
how much of this demand rise are we going to see will be sandy rebound from sandy and actually real demand? >> we have low interest rates and old cars on the road. so a lot of the demand is real demand. but the other thing is that all the checks haven't been written for sandy. we've had about two weeks of checks coming from insurance companies. but there will be more probably next month of that than there is this month. so it will help. but it's the general market conditions and cars that...
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Dec 6, 2012
12/12
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as soon as you get done figuring out, how much is sandy, how much is not sandy, we have to start dealing with the fiscal cliff so there's a shock behind us and a shock in front of us. so we're in limbo right now. and we're expecting a big effect from sandy in the friday number, especially in maybe the household survey, they moved the survey week back a week. because of an early thanksgiving. they do that -- so instead of it being the week of the 12th, it's the week of the 5th. >> so this number is going to tell us nothing tomorrow? > know there's going to be a lot of discussion about it. i'll stick to my guns, it's a 125 to 150 economy growth some of that could be sandy. i don't donknow if you want to k about that chart. this looks at the net effect acceptable. if 30% say it's acceptable and 20% say -- these are what we asked people. how many is that? that's five of eight different solutions. >> people say, yes, we're okay dealing with the fiscal cliff, if you raise taxes on those who make more than $250,000 and then you cap deductions, and virtually everything else is off the table. >>
as soon as you get done figuring out, how much is sandy, how much is not sandy, we have to start dealing with the fiscal cliff so there's a shock behind us and a shock in front of us. so we're in limbo right now. and we're expecting a big effect from sandy in the friday number, especially in maybe the household survey, they moved the survey week back a week. because of an early thanksgiving. they do that -- so instead of it being the week of the 12th, it's the week of the 5th. >> so this...
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Dec 3, 2012
12/12
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sandy. post-sandy storm. buying in the new york, new jersey area. in fact when you talk with dealers in that area they say they saw sales gained throughout the month and that's good news for luxury automakers. bmw just reported sales increasing 38.8% for the year. they've sold almost a quarter million bmws here in the united states and as a company, when you lump in mini , they believe they'll excel past the record of 2007. let's look at the monthly sales rate or annual sales rate. right now we are on track to finish this year probably at about 14 1/2 million. that's going to fall shy of the 16 million in 2007 but above what we saw in 2008. it's certainly what we were expecting and we'll have even stronger numbers in december. >> it is a really good numbers from honda as well. phil lebeau, thank you for that. >>> twint che >>> i want to check back in with jackie deangelis. president taking questions via twitter. >> the first question was@paulmmckenzie. can you assure us that any fiscal cliff negotiations regarding entitlement reform will not hurt th
sandy. post-sandy storm. buying in the new york, new jersey area. in fact when you talk with dealers in that area they say they saw sales gained throughout the month and that's good news for luxury automakers. bmw just reported sales increasing 38.8% for the year. they've sold almost a quarter million bmws here in the united states and as a company, when you lump in mini , they believe they'll excel past the record of 2007. let's look at the monthly sales rate or annual sales rate. right now we...
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Dec 5, 2012
12/12
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you have fiscal cliff, you have hurricane sandy. are you optimistic about what's happening in the economy if you take out the potential shocks? >> i don't think we make any change at all. i think the job market is producing 150,000 jobs per month, that's what we've been producing since the beginning of the year, over the past year, past two years, some months we're a little lower, higher, sometimes seasonal adjustment. if you take this month's number and x out sandy, that's over 200,000. >> that will add some jobs, that's not a fair comparison. >> so 200,000 minus 60 is 150 -- >> so you're right there. >> i don't think the economy has chang chang changed deappreciably over the last year. >> well, i think coming into friday's number, we're a little -- we don't think there's 80,000 worth of impact, might be closer to 40,000 or 50,000. whatever, there's been an impact and i agree with mark's point, 1 in about 150,000 job creation in the economy and i don't know that meaningfully changes. but i would say, if anything, the bias next year
you have fiscal cliff, you have hurricane sandy. are you optimistic about what's happening in the economy if you take out the potential shocks? >> i don't think we make any change at all. i think the job market is producing 150,000 jobs per month, that's what we've been producing since the beginning of the year, over the past year, past two years, some months we're a little lower, higher, sometimes seasonal adjustment. if you take this month's number and x out sandy, that's over 200,000....
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Dec 4, 2012
12/12
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of sandy jobless claims relative to katrina. if we don't have that chart -- there it is, great. it goes up and now we're in the down. it may pop back. but the trouble is that the big surge there is probably in the week of -- or is going to affect the week of the employment survey. >> the last week. >> and now, guys, if you have the next one back there, i don't know if you have it, you can see there what we show there is we're looking for only 80,000 jobs on friday. 95 in the private sector. that's a big jobs -- it might be hurricane related, but it could also be cliff related. there's these two things just backing up what joe said, folks, we've got enough to worry about without the stuff that we could probably fix and move on, there's enough going on. you can see that we're going to be substantially below the six-month average that we've been running there. and that shows that, you know, we were not robust to begin with, and this is why guys at the fed are concerned about things like this. if you're going 3% or 4% gdp, you have
of sandy jobless claims relative to katrina. if we don't have that chart -- there it is, great. it goes up and now we're in the down. it may pop back. but the trouble is that the big surge there is probably in the week of -- or is going to affect the week of the employment survey. >> the last week. >> and now, guys, if you have the next one back there, i don't know if you have it, you can see there what we show there is we're looking for only 80,000 jobs on friday. 95 in the private...
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Dec 6, 2012
12/12
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kansas city southern should benefit from the auto rebuild that's needed in the wake of hurricane sandy. can't get this stuff to america fast enough. united states fast enough. thanks to the strength of the economy, the increasing volumes with declining costs. the gross margins are expanding. how much do we love that in a rail? however, the auto industry only affects about 18% of kansas city southern's revenues. they do have some coal exposure, something that's crushed a great many american railroads, we know that because we have backed away from a lot of rails because of the coal. but they have something the other railroads don't have, consistently high growth, not that low single digit stuff and not susceptible to the cyclical nature of coal or the ongoing war between natural gas and coal in the fight to be fuel for american utilities. and that's why i'm naming it my new favorite railroad. even over and above union pacific, which has always been my favorite. don't get mad at me, union pacific. i used a great union pacific calendar, but it's december. that one's off the wall. anyway --
kansas city southern should benefit from the auto rebuild that's needed in the wake of hurricane sandy. can't get this stuff to america fast enough. united states fast enough. thanks to the strength of the economy, the increasing volumes with declining costs. the gross margins are expanding. how much do we love that in a rail? however, the auto industry only affects about 18% of kansas city southern's revenues. they do have some coal exposure, something that's crushed a great many american...
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Dec 6, 2012
12/12
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estimation now trading in the low 50s, moves to the upper 50s, it's digesting the negativity surrounding sandy and its geographic location well. they've got the cash in hand to fund this. this is a solid company. >> dennis gould is sitting at 1700, not talking about a special dividend here but is it going to pay dividends to own gold? >> i think owning gold in dollars has been a bad trade for a while. i'm bullish for gold in non-u.s. dollar terms, in yen terms and if you own gold in yen terms over the course of the last two months you are profitable. somebody owns gold in dollar terms is down several points. gold is nothing more than another currency, crossed against other currencies and there's nothing spectacular about gold, it's just a currency. >> call it a slick slide for oil, crude falling 2% nearing its lowest level in three weeks. for more let's go to jackie deangelis, the host of "futures now." >> crude having a tough day, the question is why. look at this chart dollar strength is causing major pain for oil, our question today is there more to selling than just the dollar rally? let's
estimation now trading in the low 50s, moves to the upper 50s, it's digesting the negativity surrounding sandy and its geographic location well. they've got the cash in hand to fund this. this is a solid company. >> dennis gould is sitting at 1700, not talking about a special dividend here but is it going to pay dividends to own gold? >> i think owning gold in dollars has been a bad trade for a while. i'm bullish for gold in non-u.s. dollar terms, in yen terms and if you own gold in...
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Dec 3, 2012
12/12
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some of that is attribute knowledge to superstorm sandy. an estimated quarter million vex were destroyed. those numbers will be out this morning. it would only say that it is speaking to, quote, interested parties. but delta air lines is involved in those sdgzs. virgin is the second largest airline at heath row. >>> and lenny dykstra will be sentenced today. he was found to have hidden and stole sports memorabilia other items that were supposed to be part of a bankruptcy filing. >>> the game of political chicken, we were looking to rise above the partisan politics and trying to get something done. david walker, ceo of the america comeback initiative, steve mcmahon, co-founder of purple strategies, you guys have been on for a while and we've talked about a lot of things. steve, just 1:30 ag ago, you made a point talking about the bush tax cuts. and i said the tax cuts have been near and dear and you said at least bush was smart enough to know that we couldn't afford them so they were sunseted. >> so they were sunseted. >> that may happen. in
some of that is attribute knowledge to superstorm sandy. an estimated quarter million vex were destroyed. those numbers will be out this morning. it would only say that it is speaking to, quote, interested parties. but delta air lines is involved in those sdgzs. virgin is the second largest airline at heath row. >>> and lenny dykstra will be sentenced today. he was found to have hidden and stole sports memorabilia other items that were supposed to be part of a bankruptcy filing....
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Dec 4, 2012
12/12
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amazon is just a winner here particularly in sandy. i regard google as making a comeback. i think that when you look at what -- apple fears google. google is going to do better going forward. look at facebook by the way. they figured out things. i'm not going to be -- i'm looking at stocks that once we go over the cliff bounce back and if we don't go over the cliff are where a lot of money is going. >> where does ulta, are these tier 2 names? >> ulta is -- david and i joke about this. it's the growth stock -- key to this market. gilliad has been great. same with ulta. you may laugh at ulta. i won't finish my sentence. >> i may. >> this double the store thing is what whole foods says. any time you can double stores, growth guys just love it. >> we're told there's no concern if we go over the fiscal cliff that that will result in some sort of a chill in the housing recovery offer the housing market. this harvard study that bob toll cited, 1.8 to 2.8 million households fewer since 2007 were formed and that's playing catchup. we should have the formation of those households un
amazon is just a winner here particularly in sandy. i regard google as making a comeback. i think that when you look at what -- apple fears google. google is going to do better going forward. look at facebook by the way. they figured out things. i'm not going to be -- i'm looking at stocks that once we go over the cliff bounce back and if we don't go over the cliff are where a lot of money is going. >> where does ulta, are these tier 2 names? >> ulta is -- david and i joke about...
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Dec 10, 2012
12/12
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sandy, fiscal cliff. but as a result, the ones that fall and come down a lot, those are the ones you pick at. >> and pope benedict is launching a new application. pope to you on facebook. the application lets you listen to his words, see his pictures and receive messages of congratulations through virtual post cards. >>> all right, all right, sema? >> hewlitt packard jumping nearly 4%. carl may be interested in the company. hp facing serious issues and the stock faulling 44%. own an fast money at 5:00, we want to know if you think they can rise from the dead. >> thank so much. >>> final trades up next when we come back on "halftime." s. i d'. i have obligations. cute obligations, but obligations. i need to rethink the core of my portfolio. what i really need is sleep. introducing the ishares core, building blocks for the heart of your portfolio. find out why 9 out of 10 large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus which includes inve
sandy, fiscal cliff. but as a result, the ones that fall and come down a lot, those are the ones you pick at. >> and pope benedict is launching a new application. pope to you on facebook. the application lets you listen to his words, see his pictures and receive messages of congratulations through virtual post cards. >>> all right, all right, sema? >> hewlitt packard jumping nearly 4%. carl may be interested in the company. hp facing serious issues and the stock faulling...
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Dec 6, 2012
12/12
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we got the big distortions from san sandy. slowly working through that. so i think if there's an outlier, investors will yawn and wait for the big nonfarm payroll report tomorrow. >> are we comfortable mf-i don't know how comfortable we are. consumers seem to be in better fettl eflt. >> in spite of this anemic job growth that we've had during the entire jobless recovery, it seems like consumers sense the -- their balance sheets have improved pretty dramatically. so, yeah, consumers -- and that's led to consumers spending slightly more than what experts thought they would spend. >> so you're overweight large cap versus small cap. why? >> the large cap u.s. multinationals, they typically have overseas subsidiaries that can reach into the emerging pockets of growth. i like the dividends payers, as well, because in these choppy markets which we'll continue to have get nice dividends. >> all right much ha. . have a good day. that's it for today's program. "squawk box" it is next. ♪ [ male announcer ] how could a luminous protein in jellyfish, impact life exp
we got the big distortions from san sandy. slowly working through that. so i think if there's an outlier, investors will yawn and wait for the big nonfarm payroll report tomorrow. >> are we comfortable mf-i don't know how comfortable we are. consumers seem to be in better fettl eflt. >> in spite of this anemic job growth that we've had during the entire jobless recovery, it seems like consumers sense the -- their balance sheets have improved pretty dramatically. so, yeah, consumers...
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Dec 4, 2012
12/12
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>> we know it will be worse than it would have been because of super storm sandy. so you didn't know how much it was to do with that and how much was the economy. so it will be a bit of a wash in terms of reading the tea leaves for the u.s. >> so the growth picture for the u.s., we sort of 1%, 2%, depending on what happens with the fiscal cliff. what do you think, 2.5%? >> yeah, i think we should be 2.5% to 3% by the end of next year. >> which might be a slightly better outturn. china seems to be back on track. is there anything in europe -- what's the tail risk at the moment? >> i think there's two things that could still go wrong in europe. one, there's always political risk. in italy, you do have elections coming up. there's a chance getting a higher share than people anticipate. but even then, the financial forces are going to force any government that comes into power to more or less stick to the plan morsi set out. on the other hand, there's always spain, the worries that with 25% unemployment, that you would see the default rate particularly on residential m
>> we know it will be worse than it would have been because of super storm sandy. so you didn't know how much it was to do with that and how much was the economy. so it will be a bit of a wash in terms of reading the tea leaves for the u.s. >> so the growth picture for the u.s., we sort of 1%, 2%, depending on what happens with the fiscal cliff. what do you think, 2.5%? >> yeah, i think we should be 2.5% to 3% by the end of next year. >> which might be a slightly better...